Martina Farinella (Università Roma Tre)
This paper examines the compound effect of sequential exposure to floods and droughts on agricultural productivity in Malawi, where rural livelihoods depend heavily on rain-fed, maize-based smallholder farming. Using geo-referenced LSMS-ISA panel data matched with climate indicators, the study estimates the effects of the January 2015 flood, the 2015/16 drought, and their interaction on plot-level maize yields using a panel fixed-effects approach.
The main findings highlight that both shocks reduce productivity, but the flood effect is systematically larger. At the same time, sequential exposure is negative but sub-additive: plots exposed to both shocks perform worse than those exposed to neither shock, yet they are not systematically the most severely affected group. Instead, the plots affected only by the flood often emerges as those with the worst performance. The results suggest that agro-ecological conditions and adaptation constraints help explain this pattern. Some agricultural practices, especially intercropping, are associated with smaller losses, while vulnerability remains strongly differentiated by gender. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of moving beyond single-hazard approaches when studying climate risk in smallholder agriculture.