Matthew Hayek (NYU)
Globally, national governments are facing a “land gap”, having overcommitted the available land base while attempting to maintain food production. France, for example, must commit roughly 2% of its total land or 6% of its agricultural area to meet 2030 forest cover targets. However, converting productive land to forests indiscriminately would risk ‘offshoring’ food production and its emissions, while potentially threatening food sovereignty. In this presentation, I will share a global framework to evaluate these trade-offs, based on my recent analysis that identifies high-carbon/low-food-yield cattle pastures for potential native forest restoration. Prioritizing restoration on these carbon “hotspots” could maximize carbon sequestration while minimizing food production losses. I will then describe how this framework could be applied specifically to the French context. Finally, I will discuss how this framework might be expanded with economists and policy experts to design financial mechanisms that support farmers through a co-beneficial land-use transition.