Julien Picard (PSAE – INRAE)
Does demand for information predict whose beliefs it will change? We investigate this question in two samples of farmers across five European countries. In the first, respondents were randomly assigned to receive information on the potential economic benefits of sustainable farming or a placebo message. In the second, respondents could choose whether to receive the same information: 38% declined. Distrust in the information source seems to explain avoidance. Using machine learning algorithms trained on the second sample, we predict information seeking and avoidance in the first. The treatment strengthens beliefs in the future economic viability of sustainable farming among predicted avoiders. We detect no belief response among predicted seekers, who are already more engaged in sustainable farming. Our findings suggest that those whose beliefs are most responsive to information may be the least likely to seek it out.