Climate Change and Migration: the case of Africa

Bruno Conte (University Pompeu Fabra)

How will future climate change affect sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in terms of migration and welfare? Can policymakers help SSA to adapt to this process? I answer these questions with a quantitative framework that, coupled with rich spatial data and forecasts for the future climate, projects millions of climate migrants and unequal welfare losses across SSA. Investigating if migration and trade policies attenuate these effects, I find a trade-off associated with the former: reducing SSA migration barriers moderates aggregate welfare losses at the cost of more climate migration and persistent welfare inequality. Reducing trade barriers attenuates this cost.