Adapting to Heat with (in)Secure Land Rights

François Bareille (INRAE), with Liang Diao (Osaka University) and Huiqian Song (Kyoto University)

This paper shows that regions with more secure land rights are associated with smaller heat damage to crop yields. After documenting this pattern across countries, we identify this relationship causally using the staggered land registry reform that enhanced land tenure security in Greece. Consistent with our theory, we find that the reform attenuates heat damage because it shifts farmers’ adaptation strategies from enlarging croplands to increasing agricultural inputs (capital, labor, and irrigation). Overall, the reform is projected to offset at least two-thirds of Greece’s agricultural productivity losses by 2100, underlining the crucial role of institutions in facilitating climate change adaptation.