Julien Wolfersberger (PSAE-AgroParistech)
This paper studies how structural transformation affects deforestation in Sub-Saharan Africa using census data from 28 countries between 2000 and 2010. The relationship between non-agricultural growth and deforestation is a priori ambiguous: while migration of farmers to cities can reduce deforestation, rising urban demand for agricultural goods may increase it. We first build two shift-share instruments that provide evidence of both mechanisms. We then develop and quantify a three-sector spatial equilibrium model to estimate the impact of productivity changes on structural transformation and deforestation. We find that while historical productivity shocks raised non-agricultural employment in most countries, their impact on deforestation was highly heterogeneous, with geography and trade openness playing a critical role.